Written by Jonathan Jordan, Area Studies Research Fellow, INADIS
On 19 June 2024, Russian president Vladimir Putin visited the capital of North Korea, Pyongyang, to meet the country’s supreme leader, Kim Jong-un. Putin’s visit followed previous visits by Kim to Vladivostok, Russia, in 2019 and 2023. Putin’s visit to North Korea was his first visit to the country since 2000, when he had just rose to power and met then-North Korean leader and Kim Jong un’s father, Kim Jong-il. Despite the long gap, Putin’s visit was expected by observers on Russia and North Korea due to North Korea’s increasingly important role in helping Russia’s war effort in Ukraine. In the past year, North Korea has delivered large amounts of artillery and ammunition to Russia, as well as evidence that North Korean missiles were used in Ukraine. This occurs at a time when Western military support for Ukraine has been stagnating, hindered by bureaucratic debates and lack of political will in some Western countries. Putin’s visit to North Korea was marked by concern by the Western world, especially allies of Ukraine and South Korea. Putin’s visit has led to South Korea raising the possibility of providing lethal military aid to Ukraine. This article will discuss Russia-North Korea relations and its impacts for both countries and the regional and global geopolitical landscape.
Putin’s visit to North Korea occurs at a time when the mutual importance of both countries have been increasing for each other. Russia has been facing isolation by the West and a very little chance to repair its Western ties, likely as long as Putin remains in power. A strengthening confrontation with the West has led Russia to embrace Asian countries, including old Cold War allies such as North Korea. For North Korea, Russia is not only its second most important ally after China, but an important geopolitical lifeline. Plagued by a failed thaw attempt with South Korea and the United States and isolation due to Covid-19 pandemic, closer ties with Russia has helped North Korea’s struggling economy hit by UN sanctions. Military aid sent to Russia has reignited North Korea’s defence industry, and Russian tourists were the first foreign ones to be welcomed to North Korea after the pandemic.
Putin was welcomed to Pyongyang with fanfare and propaganda display, with the North Korean capital filled with Russian and North Korean flags, banners and signs promoting Russian-North Korean friendship. During their meeting, both leaders elevated their bilateral relations to a comprehensive strategic partnership. The text of their partnership included mutual military assistance in case of aggression, which put both countries as formal allies. It also included further development of bilateral cooperation in various fields, such as healthcare, science and technology, nuclear energy and other fields, in addition to ‘strengthening defence potential’ (TASS). The presence of specific Russian ministers in the visit, such as Health Minister Mikhail Murashko, Energy Minister Alexander Novak and heads of Russia’s space and railway agencies can be considered as showing the level of seriousness Russia is putting to this meeting.
When we see how relations between both countries have been developing recently, it is without doubt that the level of relations and importance of Russia and North Korea for each other have been increasing. After Russia’s war in Ukraine, North Korea was one of five countries to vote against the UN resolution condemning the war. North Korea also recognised the independence of pro-Russian statelets in Ukraine (Donetsk and Lugansk People’s Republics) which led to Ukraine breaking bilateral ties with North Korea. The level of support shown by North Korea exceeds the one shown by China, Russia’s chief Asian partner, which has officially voiced neutrality and abstained at UN resolutions. Military ties between both countries strengthened with then-Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu’s visit to Pyongyang last year. After Shoigu’s visit, satellite images have shown delivery of large-scale military aid from North Korea to Russia in both countries’ ports.
However, a closer look indicates that the seemingly ‘eternal’ friendship between both countries have their own setbacks as well...
However, a closer look indicates that the seemingly ‘eternal’ friendship between both countries have their own setbacks as well, which could be worthy of attention for South Korea, the United States and other countries. Presently, despite its increasing importance, Russian influence in North Korea pales in comparison to the Soviet Union’s influence during the Cold War. Based on OEC data, Russia is not among the top four countries of North Korea’s main import and export partner, which is largely dominated by China. Despite politically Russia is now again comparable or even surpassing China in terms of relations with North Korea[1], economically Russian-North Korean trade (34.4 million USD) is much smaller than Chinese-North Korean (3.25 billion USD) trade, which is almost 100 times bigger.
In addition to this, it is important that Russia sanctioned North Korea for its nuclear programme. In the past decade, Russia has supported UN sanctions against North Korea, with President Putin signing a decree in 2013 banning arms trade with North Korea. Russia has also viewed North Korea’s nuclear tests with concern, especially considering Russia’s wider moves to attract East Asian countries for its Far East development and views North Korean missile tests as disrupting regional security, especially considering the geographical proximity between North Korea and Russia’s important Pacific port, Vladivostok. Now, with evidence of North Korean military support for Russia’s war in Ukraine, which is contradicting the sanctions regime, it is unsurprising that Putin has now stated that he would review the sanctions regime.
In the long term, the future of Russian-North Korean relations still depends greatly on the course of Russia’s war in Ukraine and Russia’s options. It is important to note that the importance of Russian-North Korean ties will depend on Russian power position as well. If relations between Russia and the West continue to worsen, either due to Russian success in Ukraine or a further isolating policy by Western countries, this will put Russia’s embrace to North Korea even closer, together with Russia’s deepening relations with China. This could be an important axis in the new Cold War, fought between the West and non-Western autocracies. However, if Russo-Western ties somehow get amended, either due to internal change within Russia, Russian defeat in Ukraine, or a peacefully negotiated settlement to the war in Ukraine, the North Korean dimension of Russian foreign policy might turn out to be not really important, if Russia can get ties with Western countries getting along again - owing to Western political, economic and technological superiority over pariah states like North Korea. While North Korea can get various development benefits from Russia, Russia may not receive the same level of development from North Korea, owing to North Korea’s relative backwardness and economic stagnation. It is also important to note the glaring differences in the socio-political and cultural profiles of both countries - with the North Korean dictatorial and isolationist society being different from Russia’s vibrant cultural landscape, which may complicate more sustainable ties..
Regardless of its future path, at the time being the closer relations between Moscow and Pyongyang will be felt across East Asia. As Russia and North Korea put higher importance on each other. South Korea and the United States will raise their stakes on alert. South Korea has opened the possibility of sending military aid to Ukraine, which given its robust defence industry, can bring concrete effects on the battlefield. The United States may put further strain towards its relations with Russia as well, and focus more on strengthening defence with East Asian allies - already a priority due to perceived Chinese threat. For North Korea itself, while the effect of closing ties with Russia on its nuclear program and tests remain yet to be seen, it is likely that with Russia evading its previous sanctions, North Korea will not hesitate on its nuclear tests or worrying international reactions, as it has ‘powerful’ Russian backing. On the other hand, however, closing ties with North Korea may complicate Russia’s already difficult global position. It may put themselves being seen as part of ‘pariah states’ by the West, which further strains the possibility of a breakthrough in Russo-Western ties.
To conclude, while Russia-North Korea relations are strengthening at the present moment and fueled by necessities of both countries, to say that a strong partnership between both countries are here to stay is still up to debate and depends on Russia’s own future path, especially its war in Ukraine. However, this does not mean that the relations between both countries should be devoid of attention. Countries in the Indo-Pacific should pay close attention to relations between Russia and North Korea, because of its implications for the strategic stability in the region, as Pyongyang’s next steps will be influenced with the knowledge of a comprehensive strategic partnership with Moscow.
References
[1] China respects UN sanctions on North Korea and did not send weapons to the country, despite of reluctance and blaming the West for the security situation.
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About the Writer
Jonathan Jordan is Research Fellow in Area Studies at the Indonesian Institute of Advanced International Studies (INADIS) with focus on Russian and Eurasian studies. He has presented papers in conferences held in Russia and cooperates with Russian, Ukrainian, and other relevant countries of study.
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