Aisha R. Kusumasomantri
Indo-Pacific Strategic Intelligence
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The ongoing discourse surrounding great power competition has become increasingly prominent, with a particular focus on the Asia Pacific region as a key area for strategic analysis. The rise of China in the Asia-Pacific region, marked by its economic and military expansion, has been identified as a potential challenge to the established global order. However, the ongoing conflicts in the Middle East present a more immediate and intricate complication to the dynamics of great power competition.
As a middle power, Indonesia is not immune to the impact of the rivalry between the United States and China.
The conflict in the Middle East has far-reaching implications, not only impacting global great power competition but also influencing countries like Indonesia in the Asia Pacific region. As a middle power, Indonesia is not immune to the impact of the rivalry between the United States and China. The complexities of how the Middle East conflict can complicate global power dynamics and, more specifically, affect Indonesia are noteworthy. Indonesia, in return, can also play a pivotal role in navigating this situation and actively contributing to de-escalating tensions.
The war between Hamas and Israel, reignited since October 2023, has led to a staggering toll of more than 33,000 casualties, with a disproportionate impact on women and children, comprising 70% of the victims. The perceived severity of actions by the Israeli Defence Force (IDF) has sparked international outrage and triggered a cascade of regional tensions. Israel is currently under international scrutiny again following an airstrike on a refugee camp in Rafah, resulting in at least 45 fatalities. This incident has sparked the global movement "All Eyes on Rafah," which aims to draw attention to what is perceived as Israel’s indiscriminate attacks on civilians.
Beyond the humanitarian implications, war has set off a chain reaction in the region, exemplified by Iran's retaliatory drone and missile attacks on Israel following an Israeli airstrike on the Iranian consulate in Damascus. Israel has responded to incident by conducted a missile attack to Iran. While there has yet to be a confirmation on the target or extent of the attack, a satellite image has detected evidence of damage around the air base of Isfahan. In the latest development, an attack also launched to a military base in Iraq that has been used by an Iran-linked group. While no one has yet to claim the attack, it becomes evident that regional tension has been soaring.
Such tit-for-tat actions risk escalating into a broader regional conflict, especially given the involvement of influential actors like Iran, which leads the "Axis of Resistance" in the Middle East—a coalition opposing the existing international order. The potential consequences of this escalation are profound, particularly considering that both Iran and Israel possess nuclear capabilities, adding a layer of complexity and potential danger to the situation.
The global great power competition is thus unfolding on multiple fronts, including the Asia Pacific, Middle East, and Europe, each presenting unique challenges and risks. While China is its primary challenger in the Asia-Pacific, Russia's aggression in Ukraine and the emerging crisis in the Middle East demand American attention and resources. Maintaining dominance across these disparate regions comes at a significant cost, potentially leading to resource overstretch for the US.
The ramifications of the Middle East conflict extend beyond the region, impacting global perceptions and alliances. The US and China are currently in a strategic competition to secure the political allegiance of the Asia Pacific States. This rivalry spans multiple domains, including diplomacy, economics, military affairs, and influence projection. However, the US faces a significant challenge due to the escalating conflict in the Middle East. The stark brutality witnessed in conflicts such as Gaza has tarnished the image of Western states, especially those aligned with Israel, prompting a critical reassessment of Western values and human rights principles. This shift in perception carries substantial weight, particularly in regions like the Asia Pacific, where public opinion plays a pivotal role in shaping political narratives and alignments.
...the Middle East's turmoil has put the US at a disadvantage in its competition with China for influence and allegiance in the Asia Pacific.
As a result, the Middle East's turmoil has put the US at a disadvantage in its competition with China for influence and allegiance in the Asia Pacific. The erosion of trust and credibility stemming from perceived inaction or biased policies in the Middle East conflict can weaken the US position and bolster China's diplomatic and strategic efforts in the region. This dynamic underscore the interconnectedness of global geopolitics and the ripple effects of regional conflicts on broader power competitions.
For instance, countries with significant Muslim populations, such as Indonesia, have witnessed civil society movements demanding action to address the humanitarian crisis in Gaza. The movements also exerted pressure on the governments of states to take more effective action to halt the ongoing humanitarian crisis in Gaza. Interestingly, despite its own human rights issues with the Shia-Sunni divide, Iran's response to Israeli attacks has garnered unexpected support from some segments of the Indonesian population in social media. This highlights the growing importance of Muslim solidarity as a factor in regional politics, potentially complicating traditional alliances and offering China an opportunity to project itself as a champion of the Muslim world.
China, while not directly involved in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, has positioned itself as a supporter of the Palestinian cause. President Xi Jinping, for example, has stated that “We [China] have always firmly supported the just cause of the Palestinian people to restore their legitimate national rights.” This aligns with China's broader strategy of challenging US influence in the Middle East and establishing itself as a key player in the region. China's diplomatic manoeuvres in supporting Palestinian rights and seeking greater influence in the Middle East illustrate how global powers are recalibrating their strategies amidst these conflicts.
Indonesia's commitment to neutrality in the escalating competition between the US and China, as articulated in its "free and active" foreign policy, will also face significant challenges. Currently, Indonesia has employed a "hedging strategy," characterized by a pragmatic outlook aimed at leveraging economic opportunities from China's rapid economic growth while concurrently maintaining a safety net through security cooperation with the US. However, the impact of the Middle East conflict can potentially disrupt the equilibrium and underscores the need for a more proactive role in fostering stability both in the Middle East and the Asia Pacific region.
....Indonesia must enhance its diplomatic engagement and act as a peace broker to facilitate peace dialogues in the Middle East.
To achieve this, Indonesia must enhance its diplomatic engagement and act as a peace broker to facilitate peace dialogues in the Middle East. Additionally, it should conduct advocacy at the multilateral level, leveraging its membership in the UN Human Rights Council to promote peaceful resolutions and provide humanitarian aid in conflict-affected areas such as Palestine. Indonesia can also further resort to under-utilized international organizations such as the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) and the South-South Cooperation (SSC) to bolster its efforts in supporting humanitarian relief and economic aid initiatives. Additionally, by assuming a regional leadership role and maintaining ASEAN centrality in the Asia Pacific Region, Indonesia can ensure regional cohesiveness among ASEAN member states amid the escalating tensions of global politics. These proactive measures align with Indonesia's principles of neutrality and active diplomacy, contributing to the promotion of peace and stability in both regional and global contexts.
Given the potential consequences of a broader regional conflict in the Middle East, immediate de-escalation efforts are crucial. Prioritizing de-escalation and engaging in genuine diplomatic efforts can help mitigate challenges to Indonesia’s strategic environment and prevent further complications of major powers competition in the Asia Pacific Region.
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Part of Foreign Policy and Public Diplomacy Division
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