Currently, Indo-Pacific is witnessing profound geopolitical shifts, characterised by the ascendant power of China, intensifying competition with the United States, and uncertainties concerning regional stability. China's economic success has translated into significant military modernisation, including a blue-water navy capable of projecting power beyond its immediate vicinity. This rapid advancement in military technology, encompassing areas like hypersonic missiles, artificial intelligence-powered warfare systems, and advanced cyber capabilities, raises concerns about regional arms races and potential destabilisation.
While the US remains the dominant military power in the region, hence a partner to sustain regional security, its relative influence is challenged by China's rapid rise. This competition manifests in numerous flashpoints, including the contested territorial claims in the South China Sea, the sensitive situation surrounding Taiwan, and the broader question of regional dominance. These flashpoints are potential catalysts for miscalculation and escalation, with the development of advanced weaponry amplifying the risks of inadvertent conflict. Among ASEAN member countries, a distinct trend towards strengthening air and naval capabilities with technological advancements is evident, reflecting concerns about external threats and the evolving balance of power.
On the other hand, the COVID-19 pandemic has exposed the inadequacies of unilateral approaches and emphasised the need for global cooperation in tackling interconnected challenges. Although the future geopolitical landscape could resemble the Cold War era, the extensive economic interdependence among competing states underscores the need for inventive solutions that address both strategic competition and economic cooperation. This dual approach could potentially contribute to the establishment of a more inclusive and stable regional order over the long term. Nevertheless, realising this new architecture necessitates skilful navigation through the complexities of rapid technological advancements in the military domain.
The current absence of Indonesia’s nation-wide strategy on the Indo-Pacific resulted in the nation’s poor responses towards the regional development, such as the AUKUS strategy, Belt and Road Initiative, and Free and Open Indo-Pacific Strategy advocated by the US and Japan. As the geopolitics of the Indo-Pacific continues to demonstrate uncertainties, Indonesia must prepare national strategy to eschew strategic paralysis. For this purpose, the country must meet the following preconditions.
The establishment of the National Defence and Security Council function under the direct command of the President to help calculate strategically the available policy tools and choose the most cost-effective solution to deal with specific threats.
The promotion of a critical mass of epistemic community that fosters civil expertise and civil-military collaboration to support the government with insights and supporting analysis
Transformative policies towards modernising military acquisition system and foreign policy approach. ISI aims to help the government to meet those preconditions and assist in the continuation of military transformation.
Indonesia can no longer afford to do business as usual when it comes to military transformation. Future defence modernisation planning needs to recalibrate the defence strategy, doctrine, and posture for the archipelagic country, to implement a life-cycle approach in the acquisition, assess and adopt defence technology 5.0, and most importantly, reskill and upskill the military personnel and civilian stakeholders to master Science, Technology, Engineering, and Mathematics.
Visi Indonesia Emas 2045.
Finally, ISI strongly believes that a stable and secure Indo-Pacific is intertwined with the safety and security of Indonesia. A safe and stable Indonesia will ultimately have an impact on Indonesia’s attempts to promote economic growth between 6% and 7%, to reach 80% of the middle class and USD 30,3000 GDP per capita–the preconditions to attain the goal of Visi Indonesia Emas 2045.
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