by: Maula Mohamad Haykal
Recently, at the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore, commander of the U.S. Pacific Fleet, Admiral Samuel Paparo, stated a concept to transform the Taiwan Strait into an “unmanned hellscape”. This involves deploying thousands of unmanned systems , from high-endurance aerial drones to one-way surface attack drones. Together with myriads of different platforms in between, it will act as some sort of anti-access/area denial (A2/AD) to deter any Chinese amphibious invasion on the island. Conceived as a delaying action in an asymmetrical setting, deploying huge number of unmanned platforms would serve as impediment to the invasion of Taiwan. Attiring highest damage as possible to the invasion force before it reached the beachhead. This impediment is hoped to be able to relieve some burden and buy enough time to prepare the defense.
The usage of drones as A2/AD platforms marked another evolution on the usage of unmanned platforms or drones in warfare. Originally utilized as reconnaissance platforms in the latter half of the 20th century, drones have become a staple of contemporary warfare in very diverse roles and are projected to take on bigger roles in the future. Realizing the value of utilizing drones in the military conflict and seeing the usage in recent conflicts, many countries around the world, including Indonesia, sought to have drones in their arsenal. For the context of this article, the writer will discuss the current utilization of naval drones as an A2/AD platform in maritime environment or sea denial roles and what lessons that could be learn for Indonesia
Case of Drones as Sea Denial
Anti-access/area denial (A2/AD) is the strategy to control access to and within an operating environment. Sea denial is the one of the application of A2/AD strategy in a maritime environment. The usage of naval drone as sea denial weapon is a fairly recent phenomenon. Previously, only naval ship or aircraft that filled the sea denial roles while USV usually revolve around information gathering and maritime survey. During the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) lacked any meaningful ship and anti-shipping capability to counter Russian forces in the Black Sea. This desperate situation forced them to adapt and utilize asymmetrical systemssuch as Unmanned Surface Vehicles (USV).
The use of USV by Ukrainian forces is regarded as success since itsuccessfully disrupt the operation of Russian Navy’s Black Sea Fleet. Practically force them to stay at the port and become juicy target for Ukrainian missile.. To support its USV operations, Ukraine also leveraged the support of NATO’s ISR capabilities find and identify the target. Hence, the use of naval drones by the Ukrainians is only a part of a much larger and complex operations that involve other forms of system, such as reconnaissance UAV, satellite, and long rangemissiles.
For their sea denial operations, Ukraine uses several types of USV that are mostly used to attack Russian ships, but can also be used for other purposes. Most of these drone types are designed to be used as suicide or kamikaze attack drones, and were equipped with explosive payload, camera, and two-way satellite communication for navigation and control purposes. The use of satellite communication system enables Ukraine to strike Russian ship that far away from the coastal rea. Despite their vulnerability, Russia has never been able to completely neutralize the threat of Ukraine’s USVs on their warships. The flexibility of USV deployment and difficulty to detect it before its getting close are the reason why deterring the USV is a complex operation. Adding to the complexity, their relatively cheap price tag make them easly produced in large number and could sustain in the relatively high attrition.
Implementation of Drones as Sea Denial by Indonesia
For any practical implementation of USV as sea denial platform by Indonesia requires two things: suitable doctrine and defense industry capacity. Doctrinally, the “hellscape” concept in the Taiwan Strait could potentially provide a lesson on how to use naval drones as a part of asymmetric sea denial platforms in deterring and defending against an amphibious operation. As an archipelagic state, hostile amphibious operation is a viable military scenario for Indonesia. Naval drones could serve as a delaying action while a more proper response is being assemble. By leveraging their ease of deployment, naval drones could be deployed from more improper and unexpected locations than more sophisticated platforms such as missile or aircraft. In the case of Indonesia, outlying small islands could be utilized in this role. Another use for naval drones is to saturate the battlespace and reducing the adversary’s magazine. Due to their large number and cheap prices, naval drones such as USVs could overwhelm the adversary’s defenses and overtime greatly reduce their munitions stocks, and theoretically allow the usually fewer, more expensive and sophisticated weapons to strike the adversary with less opposition.
Both the war in Ukraine and the proposed “hellscape” concept in Taiwan illustrate the need to produce very large number of naval drones for them to be effective. Ukraine currently has enough production capacity for naval drones to equipped units and to frequently harassed Russian ships in the Black Sea, while Taiwan is aiming to domestically produce several hundred naval drones by 2026. On the other hand, Indonesia’s ability to produce naval drones is currently unknown. However, there were several domestically-developed naval drone prototypes not currently in mass productions to according sources found online. If Indonesia wish to be able to effectively produce naval drones domestically in the very near future, Indonesia should collaborate with international partners to learn more about the technology, while setting up domestic industrial capabilities and capacity for producing naval drones in adequate quantity.
Conclusion
The concept of utilizing large numbers of naval drones as a sea denial platform in the Taiwan Strait represents an evolution of thought on the use of unmanned systems or drones in naval warfare. The examples of naval drones operating as an impromptu sea denial platform in the Black Sea by Ukraine demonstrate both the viability and challenges of using the platform in the role. For Indonesia, who sought to use drones more intensively in its military, both the “hellscape” concept and naval drones’ operation in the Black Sea by Ukraine, could serve as a lesson on how to utilize the platform while seeing the benefits and downsides. The writer, by no means a full-fledge expert in military doctrine and warfare, merely try to bring this interesting concept to a wider audience and contribute to the discourse on unmanned system in Indonesia. More thorough exploration and research by experts and professionals are needed to ultimately gauge the viability of using sea drones for sea denial role by Indonesia.
Disclaimer
This content is part of ISI Commentaries to serve the latest comprehensive and reliable analysis on International Relations, security, politics, and social-cultural in Indo-Pacific Region. Read more how to to submit it: https://www.isi-indonesia.com/write-for-us
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About the writer
Maula Mohamad Haykal holds a Bachelor of International Relations from Universitas Airlangga. His research interest includes geopolitics, emerging technologies, international security, military affairs, and Indo-Pacific studies.
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