Written by Lane M. M. Afzaal
The Russo-Ukrainian War of 2022 gives us a glimpse of how future wars may unfold. The use of drones as a key tool, not just for reconnaissance but also for offensive missions, reflects a shift in warfare since the use of precision bombing during Operation Desert Storm in Baghdad. This type of warfare will inevitably become more prevalent in other regions, including the Indo-Pacific. With China's increasing power and influence in the region, it's important to recognize that future major security conflicts may involve high-tech unmanned instruments. Since 2023, China has deployed several drones around Taiwan for reconnaissance and intimidation missions. According to Michael Raska, an assistant professor at Singapore's Nanyang Technological University, "China's military is developing more than 50 types of drones with varying capabilities, amassing a fleet of tens of thousands of drones, potentially 10 times larger than Taiwan and the U.S. combined," as reported by VOA News (Voice of America).
In response to China's growing threat to the dominance of the Western Allies in the region, the United States has played a crucial role in the development of drones for one of its closest allies and forefront responder to the threat — Taiwan. The U.S. recently committed to selling $360 million worth of attack drones to the TECRO (Taipei Economic and Cultural Representative Office), Taiwan's unofficial embassy in Washington. Taiwan considers the integration of drones into its defense strategy as vital. To further bolster defense assurance in the region, the US Department of Defense, since early 2023, also has started innovating in the development of improved electronic warfare systems with the involvement of partners in AUKUS — the security alliance involving Australia, the United Kingdom, and the United States which was newly formed in 2021. A senior defense official stated that AUKUS is working together on electronic warfare, advanced cyber capabilities, artificial intelligence, hypersonics, counterhypersonics, quantum technologies, and undersea warfare — including nuclear-powered attack submarines.
The Alarming Situations
The use of Advanced Military Technology requires a significant cost. Roughly speaking, the Indo-Pacific Region has a sufficient budget for that, but the varying levels of wealth and human resources between the states led to major gaps in the level of military technological advancement. For example, India is emerging as a major player, while other states like Sri Lanka have only recently recovered from economic collapse. With such disparities in military power — and the absence of NATO-like defense in the region — automatically low-power states will be easily controlled by their larger opposition if a big clash occurs. A state controlled by external forces will slowly experience extreme social unrest and differences in ideologies. In the future, this dispute will only exacerbate political instability in the region. Much like in Eastern Europe and Central Asia, new states will emerge, such as Abkhazia, Transnistria, and the Donetsk People's Republic — whose primary existence is to serve as satellites of influence on the borders of those in power.
The second is a consequence of technological failure in the balance of great power. Lockheed Martin F-35 Lighthing — a U.S. Advanced Stealth Multirole Combat Aircraft known for its highly electronic capabilities — is notorious for its system malfunctions over the years. As of June 2024, 10 units have had accidents since 2018, and several other cases of crucial malfunction, resulting in loss of life, severe injuries, and units beyond repair. The program itself has faced criticism due to its escalating costs, complexity, unusually large scale, and postponed deliveries. This is a fatal problem, as the F-35 is intended to be the core of NATO and U.S.-allied air power going forward. With the increasing tensions of geopolitical in the South China Sea, Ukraine, and West Asia, If this technology remains unreliable in the coming years, the U.S and its allies will only decrease the level of their deterrence and increase the possibility of other opposition great powers opening another proxy war or new front of security competition in other regions.
A worse condition is marked by the third, namely the technology itself not functioning properly, resulting in the performance itself turning to the user. One of the early high-profile incidents of a high-tech system malfunction occurred in 1999 where a Lockheed F-117 Nighthawk — a U.S. stealth attack aircraft — was shot down by a joint tactical unit of Serbian Air Force and Air Defence with a 1960s Soviet surface-to-air missile — the S-125 Neva/Pechora. This event marked the first-ever shootdown of a stealth technology aircraft. There are many arguments about why the stealth aircraft was downed by an old ordnance, but one of the most common reasons is that at the time, the F-117's bomb bay was open, disrupting its stealth structure and making it detectable on the radar. This incident shows us how unstable technology and human error can harm the user. If improved advanced technologies are applied in the Indo-Pacific, there will be another gap of power based on the reliability of the technology, on top of the gap already made by the varying levels of wealth and human resources.
Conclusion
For closure, the transition of the type of warfare is something as big as the existence of war as an idea itself. Throughout history, gaps in warfare technology between states have been common. However, the difference between manned and unmanned systems as primary instruments is something that must be carefully considered. It will not only change the balance of power between states but also the future of human warfare itself. Placing a powerful, unstable technology in a region where power and economic distribution are uneven between states will further destabilize the region itself.
References
Disclaimer
This content is part of ISI Commentaries to serve the latest comprehensive and reliable analysis on International Relations, security, politics, and social-cultural in Indo-Pacific Region. Read more how to to submit it: https://www.isi-indonesia.com/write-for-us
Related to
About the writer
M. M. Afzaal, also known as Lane, is a fellow student studying Russian Studies at the University of Indonesia. He is interested in analyzing war philosophy and literature. Additionally, Lane is a writer for 2024 IKASSLAV UI (Ikatan Kekerabatan Sastra Slavia), covering Russian written work, cinema, music, and various cultural topics.
Reach me on Instagram: @laneafzal
Comentarios